Trump Bullet Incapacitated Biden
Trump Bullet Incapacitated Biden
Trump's foreign policy an urgent issue for allies again, Tragedy of Biden: a cruel exit after 50 years in politics,
Trump's foreign policy an urgent issue for allies again
US election: Critics label the Trump-Vance ticket as isolationist in foreign policy, but the pair actually want American priorities reordered to take on China.
By James Curran (AFR)
Among the swirling currents of American politics, US allies are once more tossed about as corks on the ocean.
Donald Trump's talk of higher tariffs and expensive insurance policies for Taiwan and NATO provoke new bouts of abandonment anxiety. At the Republican convention in Milwaukee last week, his vice presidential pick, Senator J.D. Vance, pronounced that there would be "no more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer". The US would "send our kids to war", he said,
"only when we must"
The spectre of American "isolationism" second only to "appeasement" in terms of labels loathed most by the Washington foreign policy establishment, once more looms over a US election campaign.
Washington foreign policy analysts, forgetting again the abject failures since the Cold War in Iraq and Afghanistan, assume that Vance's nomination accentuates the isolationist trend. However, history tells us - Dick Cheney aside - that vice presidents rarely have much toreign policy influence, least of all for presidents like Trump.
Earlier this year, Vance voted against the SUS60 billion supplemental aid package to Ukraine, stating he remained "opposed to virtually any proposal for the United States to continue funding this war". He would
"freeze the territorial lines close to where they are right now" to assist a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv, while maintaining some US security assistance over the longer term.
For this, he has been compared to Senator Robert Taft, who before the attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 argued against US assistance to Britain in confronting Nazi Germany.
John Bolton, a former national security adviser to Trump, said his old boss' foreign policy will be "isolationist in its outlook". And Bill Kristol, arch neoconservative and former editor of the Weekly Standard, says in The Bulwark that Vance's nomination constitutes nothing less than an "alarm bell in the night" adding that "the Trump movement now is a full-on authoritarian movement".
But Vance, much like Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official tipped to be influential in a future Trump administration, wants the US to reorder strategic priorities away from Europe and the Middle East towards East Asia.
Tragedy of Biden: a cruel exit after 50 years in politics
In the end, the daily drip of Democrats deserting President Joe Biden proved lethal, and the world watched on as an American Commander in Chief was abandoned by his own party.
By James Curran (AFR)
It didn't have to be like this. But Biden's announcement that he will not seek re-election brings finality to the speculation about his age and political longevity that has coursed through his presidency.
The doubts about his capacity to serve out a full second term, if elected, had become a cacophony after his feeble performance in a debate with Donald Trump last month.
Now a seething leader, feeling disrespected and dishonoured, has bowed out of the race. Biden still resents being passed over for Hillary Clinton as the Democrat nominee in 2016. The agonising process by which he has been forced to stand aside now will do nothing to salve his longstanding suspicion that the party's elites never fully appreciated him.
Determined to fight on until November and beyond, Biden appeared to forget his own self-characterisation in the northern spring of 2020 as a "transition candidate". At that time. he said "we have not given a bench to younger people in the party, the opportunity to have that focus and be in focus for the rest of the country.
There's an incredible group of talented, newer, younger people."
But Biden had to be dragged kicking and screaming to pass the torch. The glittering prize of the presidency. which he sought for so long and gained, has now had to be relinquished.
Comparing global views of the United States and China during the Trump and Biden administrations
By Jessica Shao and Patricia M. Kim (Amended)
The United States and China are fiercely competing across domains—including in global public opinion. The 2024 presidential election will have a crucial impact on perceptions of U.S. leadership around the world, and the next administration would be well served to consider how global audiences viewed the United States and China during the Trump and Biden administrations.
Under the Trump administration, international approval of U.S. leadership fell to a historic low, with confidence in President Donald Trump roughly on par with confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump’s exit from multilateral institutions like the World Health Organization and treaties like the Paris Agreement, restrictive policies on immigration, and aggressive use of tariffs alienated U.S. allies and non-allies alike. Global views of the United States and China worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic by 20 percentage points and 16 percentage points, respectively.
The return of U.S. global engagement under President Joe Biden and his administration’s emphasis on strengthening ties with allies and partners boosted confidence in U.S. leadership. But with the outbreak of the wars in Ukraine and in Israel and Gaza and concerns about U.S.-China competition, global views of U.S. leadership have dimmed, with confidence in the Biden administration sliding from 58% in 2022 to 43% in 2024. China has narrowed the gap in favorability in the Global South and particularly in Southeast Asia. These developments are concerning as the United States’ soft power—that is, its ability to inspire cooperation among partners who admire U.S. values, culture, and vision—has been indispensable for maintaining America’s leading position in the international arena. As such, there is a pressing need for the incoming administration to reaffirm American global leadership and to strengthen the United States’ reputation as a force for peace and stability.
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Evolving views of U.S. and Chinese leadership
Implications
Global perceptions of the United States and its reputation as a foreign policy leader have faced increasing challenges in the past decade. The Trump administration’s isolationist policies resulted in record-low levels of confidence in U.S. leadership. Global views of the United States and China both worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic as competition between the two sides intensified. The Biden administration’s international engagement boosted global confidence in the U.S. president and the United States, particularly among U.S. allies and partners in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Yet, ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East have undoubtedly taken a toll on views of both Biden and the United States. Mounting concerns about Biden’s health and ability to win and serve another presidential term since his recent CNN debate with Trump are unlikely to help.
In contrast, favorability toward China and Xi has remained at dismal levels among most advanced economies throughout both the Trump and Biden administrations. But China has closed the gap with the United States in the Global South where countries are generally more open to building ties with Beijing.
While the world technically does not get a vote in the upcoming presidential elections, global perceptions of the American president and of the United States’ leadership and influence have real consequences for U.S. interests. Greater confidence in the American president and the United States’ ability to lead often translates to more willingness on the part of U.S. allies and non-allies alike to work with Washington on pressing challenges that impact American and global interests. With no easy resolutions to many of the ongoing global crises in sight and a long list of challenges to tackle, the next occupant of the White House must find ways to restore global confidence in America’s vision of the world and plans for realising it.
or goto Brookings Institute here.