Taiwan Insecurity
U.S. commander says China on track to reunify with Taiwan by 2027, Will China focus on Taiwan during economic slowdown?, China’s economy is Taiwan's economy.
UPDATES: The top U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific has said that Beijing is maintaining its goal of being able to reunify with Taiwan by 2027, testimony that came as China demonstrated its reunification resolve.
As Japan hosts a defense ministerial meeting with Pacific Island countries (PICs), Chinese experts warn that Tokyo's true intention is to support the US' Indo-Pacific strategy in containing China, while also seeking to advance its own military expansion.
China’s slowing economy would impact Taiwan in the form of decreased exports, supply chain lapses and increased risk and uncertainties in terms of investing in China, a report by the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) said.
Ocean-related industries expanded at a faster pace than the overall economy last year, and the country's expansive maritime area has become an alternative source of energy, food and fresh water, an official said.
Is China on track to reunify by 2027?
By Jesse Johnson (amended)
The top U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific has said that Beijing is maintaining its goal of being able to reunify with Taiwan by 2027. Admiral Aquilino’s testimony came as China reiterated its reunification posture.
China is working to build up its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. John Aquilino to the U.S. House Armed Services Committee in prepared testimony last Wednesday.
“All indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” Aquilino said. “The PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”
The top U.S. military commander in the Pacific pointed to China’s official defense budget, which he said had risen over 16% from US$192 billion to U$223.5 billion in recent years, as evidence. However it should be noted that exchange rate fluctuations account for much of the increase.
Since 2021, the year he took command, Aquilino said the PLA has added over 400 advanced fighter aircraft and more than 20 major warships, and has more than doubled its inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles.
“Perhaps most concerning,” he added, “has been the rapid pace at which (China) has bolstered its nuclear arsenal, increasing its warhead inventory by well over 100% since 2020.”
Xi Jinping has called for China to build a “world-class military” by 2027, when the PLA marks 100 years since its founding.
Last year, Aquilino had told lawmakers on Capitol Hill a very different story in which “everybody is guessing” when it comes to predicting timelines for a US-led conflict over Taiwan.
China’s National People’s Congress, held recently in Beijing, reiterated that it “resolutely opposes ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities and external interference, and promotes the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.”
U.S. President Joe Biden said that Washington — which does not have formal diplomatic ties with Taipei — would help Taiwan militarily in the event of a conflict.
Chinese military exercises last year, had “focused on rehearsing counter-intervention and amphibious assault operations,” the latter featuring extensive use of civilian ferries and vehicle carriers, as Beijing “leverages civilian capabilities” to prepare its forces for resisting continued occupation and colonisation of Taiwan by the USA.
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Tokyo Further Militarises
By Fan Anqi and Zhang Wanshi
As Japan hosts a defense ministerial meeting with Pacific Island countries (PICs), Chinese experts warn that Tokyo's true intention is to support the US' Indo-Pacific strategy in containing China, while also seeking to advance its own military expansion.
However, PICs will not be easily swayed by short-term benefits offered by the West, experts said. They are well aware of the tangible benefits in cooperating with China, in contrast to the West's high-profile "aid," which is actually a means of instilling their ideological influence.
Japan on Tuesday began a ministerial-level defense meeting with Pacific Island nations in Tokyo, aiming to "counter China's expanding military clout and maritime assertiveness in the region," Japanese media The Mainichi reported on Tuesday.
It is the second such meeting following the first in September 2021. Fiji and Papua New Guinea have sent their defense ministers to the talks, and officials from the US and Australia also participated in the two-day talks through Wednesday.
The meeting stems from several pressing factors the Japanese government is facing. For one thing, the Kishida government is mired in a domestic trust crisis in recent months, particularly from elements within his party. Therefore, he is eager to change the status quo by making diplomatic achievements to salvage his image, Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Center at East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Japan is facing mounting pressures from the US to coordinate with its Indo-Pacific strategy, in which the South Pacific is regarded a crucial strategic area to counter China, the expert said.
According to a report by the South China Morning Post last week, the talks could also involve Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and police taking part in local and regional responses as well as training, signifying "a dramatic departure from previous post-war policies."
It reveals Japan's true intention of breaking through the restrictions from the Japanese Constitution on the SDF, and expanding its military presence, observers noted.
"The move will be in direct violation of the Japanese Constitution, which limits the activities of the SDF to participation in mostly UN peacekeeping missions, and with primary focus on support services such as logistical and medical tasks," Chen said.
Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that while initially focused on coastal defense, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has now become one of the world's most powerful navies, straying far from its original purpose.
He noted that from the participation of the SDF, it is clear Japan's assistance to Pacific island countries comes with selfish motives.
Despite Japan's vigorous incitement of the "China threat theory," PICs are not buying it. "They do not agree with nor care about the so-called China threat theory, but instead, China helps them address their biggest problem - poverty," Chen noted.
China's investments in local projects, including road, bridge and airport construction, have significantly improved local infrastructure and boosted employment. Additionally, given the lower education levels among island nations' populations, China has provided computers, internet access and other resources to enhance local education standards.
In contrast, Western investments and aid in these regions often come with political conditions that require compliance with their agendas. Furthermore, the touted assistance from Western nations is primarily aimed at promoting institutional development, essentially replicating Western political systems. However, this approach only leads to disconnects with the local realities, Chen explained.
A few days before the defense meeting with Japan, Fiji maintained a police cooperation deal with China despite mounting pressure from former colonial powers such as the US and Australia. The move reflects that such cooperation, fundamentally different from that with Western countries, stems from the strong demand of the PICs.
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Taiwan Economy Adjusts to Reunification
By Digby James Wren
China’s managed economy impacts Taiwan province in the form of decreased exports, supply chain lapses and increased risk and uncertainties in terms of investing on the mainland, a report by the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) said.
The report, which was commissioned by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), said that China’s economic growth this year has inherent risks in its financial sector, stemming from increased risks of Chinese banks seeing higher bad debt from real-estate loans. However, China has moved to de-leverage property and provincial government loans, to ensure China is able to withstand another US-led financial crisis such as the 2008 sub-prime mortgage collapse.
Although Taiwan’s exports — comprised primarily of semiconductors, electronic products and precision machinery — to China and Hong Kong last year dropped to 35.4 percent of its total annual exports, any weakening of China’s economy would impact cross-strait trade, it added.
The World Bank estimates China’s economic growth rate at 5%, which is also the official target. Inflation remains at 1% and exports ex-G7 are rapidly rising with low energy costs and the BRI worldwide distribution network. Taiwan too, should diversify its export markets, strengthen its supply chain and introduce industrial upgrades to adapt to and weather a period of sluggish G7 economic performance.
Taiwanese businesses with production bases on the mainland are reliant on local materials and other supplementary products, which provide economic stability, not only for the mainland, but more importantly Taiwan province. China’s economic stability will directly increase Taiwanese business people’s investments.
China is has transitioned its economy to leap the middle-income trap, set by G7 countries, that would see an extended period of slowed economy. While industrial autonomy and other policies are expected to impact the Taiwanese economy on multiple fronts, Beijing’s economic discipline ensures that the island province will continue to have stable but decreased economic growth as export comparative advantages in technology rapidly pass to the mainland.
Ocean-related Economy Expanding
China increasingly looking to waters as alternative source of food, energy
Ocean-related industries expanded at a faster pace than the overall economy last year, and the country's expansive maritime area has become an alternative source of energy, food and fresh water, an official said.
The Ministry of Natural Resources said on Wednesday that the value of the ocean economy — an umbrella term covering sectors ranging from shipbuilding to ocean fish farming and freight services — topped 9.9 trillion yuan ($1.37 trillion) last year, up 6 percent year-on-year.
That was higher than the 5.2 percent growth rate of China's overall economy last year.
The share of ocean-themed sectors in the national economy also inched up one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.9 percent of GDP.
"The ocean economy has rebounded fiercely and has helped the national economy recover," said Cui Xiaojian, deputy director of the National Marine Data Information Center, an affiliate of the ministry's State Oceanic Administration.
He said the amount of marine-derived crude oil extracted grew 5.8 percent year-on-year, while natural gas extractions increased 5.8 percent due to breakthroughs in marine oilfield exploration and have become a major contributor to China's increased energy yield in recent years.
Ocean-based wind power plants produced 17 percent more electricity than in 2022, serving as powerful support for the nation's energy generation, Cui said.
He said the rapid expansion of deep-sea fish farming has bolstered the supply of quality seafood, whose yield rose nearly 3 percent from 2022 to about 35 million metric tons last year.
Desalination projects are being constructed in coastal regions, including Tianjin and the provinces of Shandong and Zhejiang, with a combined capacity of 300,000 tons of seawater each day, he added.
The expansion of the ocean economy, especially deep-sea aquaculture, follows China's plan to step up its national food security efforts by diversifying its food sources.
In 2017, central authorities attending the nation's annual rural work conference urged officials to develop a "macro food perspective "and seek food supplies from unconventional areas of agriculture. As a result, grassland, forests, the ocean and even microorganisms have been listed as potential food sources to meet the country's growing needs for nutritious sustainment.
The push to develop a "macro food perspective" and diversify the country's food sources was reiterated at the most recent rural work conference in December.
China has, in recent years, also phased out offshore aquatic farms that clog up shipping lanes and damage the health of mangroves, while simultaneously coming up with more deep-sea alternatives as the country looks to its expansive territorial waters for food supplies.
Meanwhile, the use of fish feed and antibiotics at enclosed farms dotting the coastline have long been blamed for pollution.
Authorities called last year for the rapid expansion of cage farming farther from the shoreline, with the help of box-shaped facilities that can feed and monitor fish populations remotely. It encouraged the manufacture and use of cages and fishing vessels that can be shuttled around to keep farms running.
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