South Korea: Defense and Relation with Russia
South Korea: Defense and Relation with Russia
South Korea is now the world's ninth-largest arms exporter, Downturn in the bilateral relations between South Korea and Russia over the past two years
UPDATES: Already a powerhouse for technology like chips and batteries, South Korea is now the world's ninth-largest arms exporter, with the volume of its exports up 74% in the five years from 2018 to 2022. In 2022, Yoon announced his goal of taking the world's fourth spot by 2027.
Seoul and Moscow have seen a sharp decline in their bilateral relations over the past couple of years. This deterioration stemmed from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, leading to South Korea's alignment with U.S.-led sanctions against Russia, which in turn prompted Russia to label South Korea as "unfriendly." Tensions persisted over North Korean issues, exacerbated by Russia's consistent vetoing of new UN Security Council Resolutions against North Korea despite its military provocations
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created an arms shortage that South Korean contractors are increasingly being called upon to replenish, sparking an anguished debate in a nation that has "been suffering from the effects of war for 70 years now." (Illustration by Hiroko Oshima) (Taken from the Nikkei Asia)
K-defense: South Korea's weapons industry goes global
By STEVEN BOROWIEC, Nikkei staff writer
First came glitzy, boppy K-pop. Then came soapy, soppy K-drama. Now, according to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, it is time for another K-moniker for a new, more pessimistic era, as the country with a relentlessly global brand seizes another booming export niche: weapons.
"I support the bold challenge of K-Defense," Yoon wrote in the guest book during a December visit to the offices of Hanwha Aerospace, one of the standout companies in South Korea's burgeoning defense industry. In a shiny industrial area outside the capital called Pangyo Techno Valley, also home to tech giants Naver and Kakao, Yoon posed for pensive photos while admiring hulking aircraft engines.
"Some people have considered the defense industry to be a war industry and have had negative opinions about it," read Yoon's message. "In fact, the defense industry is a peaceful industry that shares our values in the global security system while guaranteeing the safety of our allies and people who respect the international order."
South Korean exports are mainly driven by semiconductors, cars and boy bands. But in recent years, the country's defense companies, whose skills have been honed amid a seven-decade-old confrontation with North Korea, have raised their global profiles with the signing of landmark deals.
At the Hanwha event, Yoon said a strong defense industry could contribute both to South Korea's national security and to its economy through job creation.
The president's presence at the event -- a strategizing session for defense exports attended by officials from the government, military and private sector -- demonstrated the growing importance of the industry and the close alignment of government and business in projecting it abroad.
Already a powerhouse for technology like chips and batteries, South Korea is now the world's ninth-largest arms exporter, with the volume of its exports up 74% in the five years from 2018 to 2022. In 2022, Yoon announced his goal of taking the world's fourth spot by 2027.
Enemies close
At home, South Korea's defense industry is rooted in the need to guard against its heavily armed neighbor, North Korea. In addition to its arsenal of nuclear weapons, under leader Kim Jong Un, the North has tested ever newer and more sophisticated arms. Last year it put its first reconnaissance satellite into orbit. North Korea in January claimed to have also successfully test-flown a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead and tested an underwater drone system capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
In the face of this threat, South Korea has developed a huge weapons manufacturing infrastructure that is increasingly looking abroad for business opportunities and building a reputation for being able to fill orders quickly at a time of backlogs in other parts of the world.
As the Ukraine war creates a global shortage of artillery shells, South Korean companies have seen orders rise to replace inventories shipped to Kyiv. "South Korean companies have carved out a niche where they're providing materials that are not necessarily at the highest end technologically, but at a more affordable price," Euan Graham, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Nikkei Asia.
"The country has an industrial infrastructure whereby it can quickly provide arms to countries that need them, and buying from Korea is good policy from a value-for-money perspective," Graham said.
The defense branch of the Hanwha conglomerate produces artillery, armored vehicles, air defense and amphibious systems. In December, Hanwha Aerospace signed a deal worth more than $2.6 billion to supply 152 K9 self-propelled howitzers to Poland by 2027. When announcing that deal, the Polish government said Russia's aggression in Ukraine had inspired it to bolster its military might: "Only the heroism of a soldier equipped with modern, effective weaponry is in a position to halt Russian imperial ambition."
That deal is part of a framework agreement signed in 2022 to supply 672 K9 howitzers and 288 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers to the European nation. That deal, worth $22 billion, was the biggest ever signed by a South Korean defense company and was touted domestically as a landmark in the country's development as a player in the global arms trade. Hanwha declined Nikkei's request for comment.
Also leading the charge is Korea Aerospace Industries, which recently inked an agreement worth more than $1 billion to supply attack helicopters to the South Korean army. The company is also working to begin production of the KF-21 fighter aircraft this year, as part of a 10-year development project worth around $178 million.
LIG Nex1, another major defense company, will export mid-range surface-to-air missiles (M-SAM II) to Saudi Arabia as part of a deal worth $3.2 billion announced earlier this month. LIG Nex1 recently announced an agreement with Hyundai Rotem, another domestic company, to share data toward the goal of winning more contracts in the Middle East.
Such companies work closely with the government, with the Ministry of National Defense often announcing the details of overseas deals.
Read more
Seoul-Moscow Relations on a Dangerous Slippery Slope
By Ellen Kim, Deputy director and senior fellow of the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
There has been a significant downturn in the bilateral relations between South Korea and Russia over the past two years. This began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and South Korea’s participation in subsequent U.S.-led sanctions against Russia, for which Russia designated South Korea as an “unfriendly” state. Tensions also persisted over the North Korean issues as Russia continued to veto all new UN Security Council Resolutions against North Korea, despite the latter’s continuous military provocations in 2022 and 2023.
The deteriorating Seoul-Moscow relations took a turn for the worse when a new alignment emerged on both sides. In July 2023, South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol made a surprise visit to Ukraine and announced South Korea’s peace initiative in support of Ukraine, including military, humanitarian, and economic reconstruction aid. Two months later, Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held a summit and agreed to enhance their countries’ military cooperation. Most recently, tensions culminated in a diplomatic row between foreign ministries in Seoul and Moscow over President Yoon’s remarks on North Korea.
A confluence of these adverse developments marks a significant setback in the bilateral ties between Seoul and Moscow, which have grown largely through active economic cooperation since South Korea and the Soviet Union normalized a diplomatic relationship in 1990. In 2021, Russia was South Korea’s tenth-largest export partner, with the latter’s goods exports to the former totaling $9.97 billion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Russia is also South Korea’s important energy supplier, accountingfor less than 10 percent of its total energy imports before the outbreak of the Ukraine war. For Russia, its goods exports to South Korea were over $17 billion in 2021, making South Korea its fifth-largest export destination. Both South Korea and Russia have also seen each other largely in geoeconomic and geostrategic terms. While Russia traditionally saw South Korea as a main gateway to the Pacific Ocean, South Korea similarly viewed Russia as an important partner in regional connectivity projects, such as logistics and energy networks, and for transnational cooperation in the Eurasian continent.
However, the Ukraine war and its spillover to the Korean peninsula are taking a hard toll on the Seoul-Moscow relationship, and both sides are firmly locked in their core interests over North Korea and Ukraine and have little wiggle room to narrow down their differences. Russia needs North Korea’s ammunition and missiles to win the war in Ukraine. In return, Russia provides a wide range of support and assistance to North Korea, including sophisticated military technology. But Russia’s actions not only pose a direct security threat to South Korea, but also significantly undermine existing sanctions against North Korea. Russia also criticized U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK)-Japan military exercises as a war preparation with North Korea, although South Korea views the joint military exercise with the United States as critical for allied military readiness, and as a demonstration of U.S. extended deterrence commitment to its security. On Ukraine, Russia repeatedly threatened South Korea not to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, warning that it would “negatively affect” the security situation in the Korean peninsula. The Yoon government has resisted European calls for South Korea’s direct military support to Ukraine, but it views Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as illegal under international law and maintains its sanctions against Russia. Recently, the Russian ambassador to South Korea demandedthat South Korea lift the sanction as a “minimum requirement” before Moscow removes South Korea from its “unfriendly nations” list. But such demand would be very difficult for South Korea to meet unless Russia also takes reciprocal actions on North Korea. Ultimately, neither side is likely to budge as long as the Ukraine war continues.
While Seoul and Moscow remain bogged down in the current deadlock, several factors could push the ROK-Russia relations off the cliff. One is if Russia does not condemn or is seen to support North Korea in the event of the latter’s lethal provocation against South Korea, in contrast to the case of the shelling of Yeonpyeongdo Island in 2010. The second is Russia’s continued military technology assistance to North Korea, which could be demonstrated in the latter’s weapons testing. Despite their strong denial of a military deal, there is strong skepticism about Russia’s help behind North Korea’s successful satellite launch last year. The third is Russia’s effort to block the UN Security Council resolution against North Korea in the event of North Korea’s seventh nuclear test, a possibility repeatedly raised by the Russian Ambassador to North Korea recently. The fourth is Russia’s help to North Korea to evade international sanctions and undermine the non-proliferation regime. The recent media reportthat Russia has released North Korea’s frozen assets in Russian financial banks, if true, will push the bilateral relations in a bad direction. Finally, Putin’s scheduled visit to North Korea and further tightening of Moscow-Pyongyang ties could encourage North Korea’s military adventurism on the peninsula and harden the rift between Seoul and Moscow. For Russia, it may have an incentive to incite North Korea’s provocations to distract U.S. attention away from Ukraine. However, such an idea would be a mistake and could only backfire with heightened tension on the peninsula and a possible policy change in Seoul.
That said, Russian deputy foreign minister Andrey Rudenko’s recent visit to Seoul and meetings with South Korean officials in early February to resume dialogue was a positive step. This progress should be followed by continuous dialogue between South Korea and Russia to establish de-escalatory measures and put guardrails on their bilateral relations. Without them, North Korea’s military provocation will likely put the current ROK-Russia bilateral relationship on a slippery slope that would end at rock bottom.
Read here