Russia surprised the West
Russia surprised the West
Ukraine War rips veil off of US weapons superiority, ‘They’ve grown back’: How Russia surprised the West and rebuilt its force, US sends Replicator suicide drone swarm to counter China in Indo-Pacific
Ukraine War rips veil off of US weapons superiority
By Andrew Cockburn (Responsible Statecraft)
As Russian forces steadily advance in the Kharkiv region, it is becoming ever more clear that the Ukraine war has been a disaster for the U.S. defense machine, and not just because our aid has failed to save Ukraine from retreat and possible defeat. More importantly, the war has pitilessly exposed our defense system’s deep, underlying, faults.
Critics have long maintained that our obsession with technologically complex weapons inevitably yields unreliable systems produced in limited numbers because of their predictably high cost. They are furthermore likely to fail in combat because of the military’s lack of interest in adequate testing (lest realistic tests reveal serious shortcomings and thereby threaten the budget.) The unforgiving operational test provided by the Ukraine war has shown that the critics were absolutely right. Successive “game changing” systems - such as the Switchblade drone, the M-1 Abrams tank, Patriot air defense missiles, the M777 howitzer, the Excalibur guided 155 mm artillery round, the HIMARS precision missile, GPS-guided bombs, and Skydio drones endowed with artificial intelligence, were all dispatched to “the fight,” as the military like to call it, with fanfare and high expectations.
All were destined to fail for reasons rooted in the fundamental problems cited above. The $60,000 Switchblade drone, produced in limited numbers due to cost, proved useless against armored targets and was quickly discarded by Ukrainian troops in favor of $700 Chinese commercial models ordered online. The $10 million Abrams tank not only proved distressingly vulnerable to Russian attack drones but in any case broke down repeatedly and was soon withdrawn from combat, though not before the Russians put several out of action and captured at least one, which they took to Moscow and added to a display of Nato weaponry in a Moscow park that included an M777 howitzer and other items of NATO hardware.
The M777 cannon, though touted for its accuracy, has proved too delicate for the rough conditions of sustained combat, with barrels regularly wearing out and requiring replacement in Poland far from the front lines . Notoriously, its 155 mm ammunition has been in short supply. Thanks to the consolidation of the U.S. defense industry into a small number of monopolies, an ill-judged policy eagerly promoted since the Clinton Administration, U.S. domestic production of 155 mm shells is reliant on a single aging General Dynamics plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, which is struggling to meet its targets.
President Zelensky has been loudly demanding more Patriot launchers and missiles to defend Kharkiv, which is curious, given the apparent ease with which the Russians have targeted Patriots defending Kyiv, and the system’s declining effectiveness against Russian ballistic missiles. HIMARS long range missiles indeed had a deadly effect on high value Russian targets, such as ammunition dumps, but the Russians adapted by dispersing and camouflaging such dumps and other likely targets.
Take it from a Ukrainian: Western Systems “Worthless.”
Strikingly, many of the failures of U.S. weapons, including the HIMARS, in Ukraine have been due to their reliance on a highly vulnerable guidance system: GPS. The Russians, who have long devoted intense care and attention to electronic warfare, have proven increasingly adept at jamming GPS. This has been most witheringly expressed by Maria Berlinskaya, a pioneer in Ukraine’s use of drones and head of the country’s aerial reconnaissance support center, who recently stated that “most Western systems have proven to be [worthless]” thanks to Russian jamming.
Her gloomy assessment was confirmed in April by none other than William LaPlante, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, who told a CSIS conference how a company (Boeing, though he did not name it) had proposed adapting their small diameter GPS guided bomb as a warhead for the HIMARS. It had been accordingly rushed through development and into production, with little or no testing, and shipped off to Ukraine.
“It just didn’t work,” admitted LaPlante, thanks to Russian GPS jammers that threw it off course and caused it to miss. The same sad fate seems to have befallen the Skydio drone, product of an eponymous Silicon Valley startup, whose AI features trumpeted by the company - “Skydio drones have the compute capacity to see, understand, and react in real time” - did not prevent it from being driven off course by Putin’s jammers.
Sullivan and His Pals Drank the Kool Aid the Military Poured for Them.
Needless to say, none of these assorted failures were anticipated by the U.S. military high command, few of whom would be eager to denigrate the wares of contractors with lucrative post-retirement board seats on offer. We might hope that our senior civilian leadership would be aware of such biases and temper their expectations accordingly. Unfortunately, they drank the Kool Aid, as evidenced for their high expectations for the 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Despite high hopes and lavish supplies of weapons, including tanks, ammunition, drones, intensive training on the territory of NATO allies, and a grounding in U.S. command and control doctrine, the counter-offensive was an immediate and total failure. Planners were apparently caught by surprise by the depth of Russia’s (easily visible) defensive fortifications, especially minefields and the effectiveness of its electronic jamming. Ever since then, Ukraine has been steadily retreating, losing in the process its reserves of military manpower.
Then There’s Corruption.
Not all of Ukraine’s dire situation can be blamed on the military deficiencies of its major Nato ally. The country’s infamous corruption, well known to western governments but generally ignored in the western press, is currently highlighted by its crumbling defenses around Kharkiv. According to an exemplary report by Ukrainian anti-corruption researcher Martyna Boguslavets, published in the Kyiv-based Ukraina Pravda, the huge sums appropriated for building fortifications around the city have simply been stolen. Here is her report (machine translated.)
Read more here.
Russia surprised the West
By Noah Robertson (DefenseNews)
The Pentagon in March put a price tag on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Speaking in the officer’s club at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin read a list of costs the Kremlin had tallied over two years: More than 315,000 troops killed or wounded. Over $211 billion spent. Some 20 medium or large ships damaged or sunk in the Black Sea.
US sends Replicator suicide drone swarm to counter China in Indo-Pacific
By Christopher McFadden (Interesting Engineering)
The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has dispatched the initial batch of “Replicator” program drones to the Indo-Pacific region. Deliveries began in early May, marking the first phase in a multi-year strategy to deploy thousands of expendable drones to counter adversaries like China.
However, the production and deployment of thousands of sacrificial drone “mass” is only a portion of the program’s goal. The other aim is to build “muscle memory” for the DoD to churn out drones in short order when needed.
Defense One explains that all US military services are expected to participate in testing, acquiring, and deploying these technologies. The hope is that the rapid deployment of a large number of networked drones could help deter Chinese aggression in the Pacific before 2027.
This deadline is when many analysts anticipate China may attempt a military maneuver to annex Taiwan. Additionally, the program could enable the department to move toward new, significantly faster acquisition models.
First “Replicator” drones have been delivered
Announced in a public statement, the lack of details regarding which specific drones have been delivered is noteworthy. This could be a deliberate choice, as Pentagon officials understandably prefer to keep adversaries unaware of potential threats.
However, the initial set of “Replicator” drones is expected to include unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), unmanned aerial systems (UAS), and counter-unmanned aerial systems (c-UAS) of various sizes and payloads from multiple traditional and non-traditional vendors.
“I am pleased to announce that the Department will begin investing in scalable production for these critical capabilities,” Deputy Secretary Kathleen H. Hicks is quoted as stating in the press release. “We are taking an important step toward strengthening our defense and technology industrial base,” she added.
“And, we are demonstrating the Department’s ability to break down barriers to scaling innovation at speed not just for [all-domain attritable autonomous] ADA2 systems, but in our ability to develop new capabilities and processes for the Department and key stakeholders, including Congress.”
As reported by Defense News, in a briefing earlier this month, senior defense officials, speaking anonymously, mentioned that the initial systems in Replicator will consist of AeroVironment’s Switchblade 600, a loitering munition.
Additionally, the systems will include maritime drones that were acquired through a solicitation posted earlier this year by the Defense Innovation Unit, which procures high-tech weapons for the Pentagon.
Many more to come
As depicted above, other potential drones include Shield AI’s V-BAT drones, with major defense contractors like Northrop Grumman developing their own kinds. It is unclear if the delivered drones comprise any or all of these.
“This is just the beginning,” said Admiral Christopher Grady, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“Replicator is helping us jumpstart the delivery of critical capabilities at scale. We will build on that momentum with industry partners to deliver what the warfighter needs, and remove barriers to doing so again and again.”
The Pentagon has requested $1 billion to fund the program between this fiscal year and fiscal year (FY) 2025. In FY2024, part of the funding comes from a reprogramming request sent to Congress, seeking authorization to reallocate existing funds.