Red Line Report

Russian Foreign Ministry tells French ambassador Paris’ policies destructive, France sends troops to Ukraine: Russian report, A Polish general dies deep in Ukraine,

Russian Foreign Ministry tells French ambassador Paris’ policies destructive

Pierre Levy was told that the French authorities' attempts to create some kind of "strategic uncertainty" for Russia with their "irresponsible statements about the possible dispatch of Western military contingents to Ukraine are doomed to fail"

MOSCOW, May 6. /TASS/. Pierre Levy, the French ambassador to Moscow, was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday after bellicose statements by the French leadership to be told that Moscow regards Paris' policies as destructive. France's attempts to create some kind of "strategic uncertainty" for Russia with speculations about sending troops to Ukraine are doomed to fail, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a news release.

"In connection with the increasingly bellicose statements by the French leadership and available evidence of France's growing involvement in the conflict around Ukraine, French ambassador to Moscow Pierre Levy was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry on May 6. The Russian side expressed fundamental assessments of Paris’ destructive and provocative policies, leading to a further escalation of the conflict," the Foreign Ministry said.

Levy was told that the French authorities' attempts to create some kind of "strategic uncertainty" for Russia with their "irresponsible statements about the possible dispatch of Western military contingents to Ukraine are doomed to fail. The goals and tasks of the special military operation will be achieved."

Levy avoided answering reporters' questions after leaving the Foreign Ministry building.

Earlier, French President leader Emmanuel Macron in an interview with the British magazine The Economist acknowledged it might be possible to consider sending troops to Ukraine in case of Kiev's request "if Russian forces break through the frontline." Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitriy Peskov told reporters that these speculations were an unprecedented new round of tension.

Read more here.

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France sends troops to Ukraine: Russian report

Will the deployment of a Foreign Legion unit commanded by French officers trigger a wider European war?

Editors’ Note, May 6, 2024: A link originally indicating a source for this report has gone dead. The author in an addendum published on his Substack blog May 6 has supplied additional links and discussed the sourcing. The first two paragraphs immediately below accordingly represent a rewrite to update the May 4 article, which France has officially denied, and there are further edits farther down in the text.

(Further update, May 7, 2024: Russia’s Pravda has published a detailed article setting forth what Russian military bloggers who specialize in military matters have reported. The article, in English, is available here.)

France has sent its first troops officially to Ukraine – the soldiers drawn from France’s 3rd Infantry Regiment, which is one of the main elements of France’s Foreign Legion (Légion étrangère), deployed in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in Slavyansk – according to a report from the Russian news service Sputnik, itself sourced to the Russian Telegraph channel Military Chronicle.

Top War, another Russian site, notes that there is a slightly different version in which the unit number of the Ukrainian brigade receiving these reinforcements is not the 54th but the 7th. “For our part,” cautions Top War, “we can neither confirm nor deny this information, so everything is at your discretion. At the same time, there is no smoke without fire.”

In 2022 France had a number of Ukrainians and Russians in the Foreign Legion (Légion étrangère). They were allowed to leave the Legion and, in the case of the Ukrainians, return to Ukraine to join Ukrainian forces. It isn’t clear if the Russians returned home.

The Legion today is run by French officers but the rank and file are generally foreigners. Under the current anonymat (being anonymous) rule, a volunteer who joins the Legion can decide whether to keep his given name or adopt a new one. Legionnaires serve for five-year terms, after which they can ask for French citizenship. If a legionnaire is wounded, he is entitled to gain French citizenship without any waiting period. There are no women in the Foreign Legion.

The initial group of French troops is reported to number around 100 out of around 1,500 French Foreign Legion soldiers scheduled to arrive in Ukraine.

Posting these troops directly in a hot combat area would be intended to help the Ukrainians resist Russian advances in Donbas. The first 100 are described as artillery and surveillance specialists.

For months French President Emanuel Macron has been threatening to send French troops to Ukraine. He has found little or no support from NATO countries outside of support from Poland and the Baltic States. Allegedly the US opposes sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine (other than as advisors).

One of the questions to immediately arise from France’s decision to send soldiers from its 3rd Infantry Regiment is whether this crosses the Russian red line on NATO involvement in Ukraine? Will the Russians see this as initiating a wider war beyond Ukraine’s borders?

France itself does not have many troops to put on Ukraine’s battlelines, should the French government want to do so. According to reports, today France cannot support an overseas deployment of a full division and won’t have this capability until 2027 at the earliest.

A decision to send Foreign Legionnaires should be seen as a peculiar French compromise. France is not deploying its home army and, besides the small number of officers, the men sent generally are not French citizens.

France’s decision has two meanings, beyond the obvious one of potentially triggering a pan-European war.

First of all, it allows Macron to send troops to Ukraine and act like a tough guy without encountering much home opposition. With few French citizens being sent and with the lack of conscription or other measures in the offing, the potential fury of Macron’s political opponents is reduced.

The second reason is Macron’s anger at seeing French troops, almost all from the Legion, getting kicked out of Sahelian Africa and replaced by Russians. Control of Francophone Africa and the riches it provides to French politicians has been broken by the revolt and revolution in Africa and a decisive tilt to Russia – either directly or through PMC Wagner (the Wagner Group), now clearly under Vladimir Putin’s direct control.

This “humiliation” is felt in the Élysée Palace and particularly by Macron, who, his opponents say, has lost France’s influence and harmed France’s overseas mining and business interests.

A particular blow is in Niger, an important supplier of uranium to France. France gets 70 percent of its electrical power from nuclear power generators. Global uranium supplies are tightening and prices rising. With Russia and Kazakhstan, along with Niger, on the top of the heap in terms of supplying uranium for nuclear reactors, France has a home economic security problem. The US decision to ban Russian uranium (but probably not realistically, in the next few years) the Russians could deal a serious blow to France and the United States by cutting off supplies.

Given the risk of losing access to uranium, or at least enough of it to supply France’s reactors, Macron has to hope that his troop deployments to Ukraine won’t trigger a Russian embargo on sales to France.

It isn’t clear how the Legionnaires can help the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians know how to operate artillery, and they have sophisticated intelligence support, some of it generated by their own FPV drones and spies and some of it thanks to US and other NATO intelligence and surveillance assets supporting Ukraine.

Anyway, the Ukrainian issue is not about how to use artillery but where the ammunition is supposed to come from. Ukraine continues to complain it lacks adequate supplies for 155mm howitzers.

A decision to put the Legion soldiers in Slavyansk is extremely provocative and goes against statements from the French side, including Macron, to the effect that if France sent troops they would replace Ukrainian army units in western Ukraine who could, therefore, be moved eastward to fight the Russians. As Slavyansk is on the front line, this French image of a soft deployment is turning into a war with Russia directly.

A key question is how NATO will react to the French decision to deploy. As France is acting on its own without NATO’s backing, the French cannot claim support from NATO under its famous Article 5, the collective security component of the NATO Treaty.

Should the Russians attack French troops outside of Ukraine it would be justified because France has decided to be a combatant, and forcing an Article 5 vote would seem to be difficult if not impossible.

Of course, NATO members individually could support the French, either by sending their own forces or by backstopping the French logistically and in communications. For example, there is no way Foreign Legion soldiers can go to Ukraine without passing through Poland. Will the Russians see this as evidence they are at war both with France and Poland?

Right now no one can answer any of these questions with any degree of certainty. It is unlikely the Russians will long tolerate a buildup of French army troops, even if they are Foreign Legion soldiers. What Russia will do in response is not certain.

Read more here.

NB: Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defence for policy. 

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A Polish general dies deep in Ukraine

Warsaw says soldier died of ‘unexplained natural causes’ while Moscow claims to hit Chasiv Yar command centre secretively hosting senior NATO officials

By Stephen Bryen

Before the Ukrainian counteroffensive commenced, the important city of Bakhmut fell to the Russians. I wrote at the time that it seemed the Russians would also aim to take the town of Chasiv Yar but that didn’t happen because the war shifted to the south and the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

Meanwhile, a month later, the so-called hero of Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of his Wagner forces, invaded Russia in what looked like an attempted coup d’etat but also may have been timed to help Ukraine’s large-scale counteroffensive.

Bakhmut’s capture and what happened in the Donbas shifted to the counteroffensive and the internal threat to Moscow. Russian forces did not move toward Chasiv Yar.

Chasiv Yar was extremely important during the battle for Bakhmut. It was the feeder for troops being sent into Bakhmut and for the rotation of soldiers fighting there. 

It was the source of supply of ammunition, food and medical support for Ukraine’s army in the city. Chasiv Yar was also the command center not only for the Ukrainians but also for their Western military advisers.

That latter role is what has again become clear in the last week of March, as the Russians successfully bombed a six-story deep command bunker in Chasiv Yar on March 26.

According to the Russians, the bunker was hit by one or more Iskander missiles. The Iskander is a short-range ballistic missile that can operate at hypersonic speed (Mach 5.9). It has different types of warheads including bunker busters that weigh between 1,000 and 1,500 pounds.

Inside that command center were very senior NATO officers, some of whom were killed, according to Russian reports. One of them was Brigadier General Adam Marczak of the Polish army.

His biography states: 

In 1994, Brigadier General Adam Marczak graduated from the Land Forces Military Academy in Wroclaw, Poland, and was assigned as Assault Platoon Leader to the 10th Air Assault Battalion, which is part of the 6th Air Assault Brigade based in Cracow.

In the course of the following years up to 2011, he held successive positions in the 6th Air Assault Brigade: Commander of the 2nd Assault Company, Operations Officer in S3 Section, of Section S2 Chief and Chief of Staff and Deputy Battalion Commander of the 16th Airborne Battalion. In 2011, he joined the Polish Special Operations Forces Command based in Cracow as Deputy Chief of the Exercise Division.

He was associated with this military unit until 2017 where he finally held the post of Chief of the Certification and Exercise Division. In 2017, he assumed command of the 25th Air Cavalry Brigade in Tomaszow Mazowiecki. From 2020 to 2021, Brigadier General Adam Marczak served as Chief of the Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Division at the Armed Forces General Command in Warsaw.

Since his appointment and assumption of office in 2021, he holds the position of Deputy Chief of Staff, Support & Enabling Euroscorps. In 2009, he served for six months as Deputy Airborne Battle Group Commander at ISAF in Afghanistan. He returned to Afghanistan for two years (between 2015 and 2017) as NATO Chief of Staff at the NATO Special Operations Component Command (NSOCC-A).

Poland reported his death, which the Polish Army said was due to “unexplained natural causes.”

Various Telegraph channels report that other NATO officers were either killed or wounded in the attack at Chasiv Yar. According to these accounts, some of the wounded were hastily evacuated to Poland. We don’t know the names, the ranks or the nationality of any of those killed or wounded other than Marczak.

Many analysts think that the Russians will soon take Chasiv Yar, even though it is heavily defended. Reports say that Russian forces are only a kilometer or two away from the town, although engaged in fierce fighting as Ukrainian forces try to push them back.

It is unusual for such high-ranking NATO military officers to be so close to the line of contact with the Russian army. The only reason for them being there is an act of desperation: deep concern that the Russians might successfully push through, endangering the entire second-tier defenses that Ukraine is trying to build to prevent the Russian army from driving toward the Dnieper, potentially splitting Ukraine’s forces and endangering Kiev.

For some time it has looked like the Russians would launch a really big new offensive. The only question has been the goal of a Russian operation. Some think it would be taking Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The Russians recently knocked out part of Kharkiv’s power grid and Russian forces could be sent to attack the city. But this would create a significant problem since taking cities is a costly, long process that always involves significant casualties. The Russians just went through a very long battle for Avdiivka that took four months. Avdiivka is tiny compared to Kharkiv.

Chasiv Yar and the fighting around that town now seems like a more important and immediate target for the Russians. The fact that it is full of top NATO personnel also says it is a very important strategic asset for the Ukrainians.

Ukraine’s “new” military strategy, led by its new overall military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is aimed at buying time and delaying any Russian advance. 

To do this, the Ukrainians are building trenches and tank traps and other hardened defensive systems. At the same time, Ukraine is trying to divert Russia through artillery and bombing attacks on Russian cities and parallel attempts to attack Crimea.

There has also been a significant increase of NATO operations in the Black Sea, probably to help the Ukrainians target Crimea and targets inside Russia. But diversions are unlikely to change the main character of the war or force the Russians to use their forces to defend key assets in Crimea, Donbas or Russia.

In the next week or two we will likely see what happens in Chasiv Yar and whether the Ukrainians can hold the town and thwart the Russian advance. If they cannot, then NATO will have to think up an alternative that could include opening negotiations with Russia. 

This won’t please US President Joe Biden or his national security team, who prefer a prolonged fight in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reports that a number of unnamed NATO players are already meeting about some sort of negotiated deal, although so far he says the Russians are not included in the process.

Read more here.

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French at Chasov Yar: Americans next?

By Pravda

Mercenaries from France are already at Chasov Yar. Experts do not exclude that the Americans will also "have to intervene in the conflict," and this will not only be sponsorship. We tell you where the hottest battles of the Russians with the Western military are expected.

"It's not Tik Tok anymore"

As it became known, on the southern approaches to the Yar Chapel, Russian paratroopers clashed with groups of French and German mercenaries and engaged in battle. And these are trained, motivated fighters - "professional military personnel of NATO countries."

"Now these are not the same tiktok military of foreign countries who came to Ukraine to earn money and, at the first threat to their lives, fled from their positions, packed their bags and left back. Now trained, highly motivated and ideological fighters are joining the battle, in other words, professional military personnel of NATO countries," said military expert Vladislav Shurygin.

According to him, "the paratroopers met with representatives of the French Foreign Legion, who, according to the Military Chronicle, had previously been transferred to Slavyansk."

"Apparently, the unit that was originally planned to be used in the defense of Slavyansk (in case of a breakthrough of the front) is now involved in the defense of Chasov Yar, where the situation for the AFU is deteriorating every day," he said.

If this is the case, then on May 5, the French legion suffered its first losses - up to 7 people.

Earlier, on April 12, the Tg channel "Military Chronicle" reported that representatives of the 3rd infantry regiment of the French Foreign Legion arrived at the location of the 54th separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Slavyansk together with the Caesar self-propelled guns who arrived under the guise of maintenance personnel.

According to preliminary information, the first group of 100 people are specialists in artillery reconnaissance, as well as an engineering group specializing in fortification and construction of field fortifications.

"Apparently, the French, who move around the city only accompanied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, will help the Ukrainian army defend Slavyansk when the front line shifts towards this city," the channel's authors noted.

There are first losses

According to Boris Rozhin, an expert at the Center for Military and Political Journalism, "French and German mercenaries joined the battle near the Yar Clock."

"It is reported from the field that in the forestry, on the southern approaches to the Chapel, paratroopers encountered groups of mercenaries in a shooting battle," he noted.

According to him, the first reports (based on radio intercepts) about the arrival of foreign mercenaries in the Hours of Yar were received about a month ago, but then it was completely unclear what kind of units they were.

There are clarifications now.

"If this is really the case, then yesterday the French Foreign Legion suffered its first losses (up to 7 people)," the expert noted.

It should be noted that recently the Chinese media also confirmed that France has officially sent its troops to Ukraine. This happened in the context of the attack on the thermal power plant in Slavyansk on May 5 by the Russian army.

As military commander Yuri Kotenok pointed out in his telegram channel, "Slavyanskaya TPP after a missile strike. Enemy resources confirm five arrivals on the territory of the station. It is premature to talk about the destruction of the facility yet," he added.

Also, the "Two Majors" reported that the distance from the front line, which was flown by an air bomb or missile, is 30 km.

"For even more significant purposes, our UAVs make raids much deeper - up to 100 km (these are only those cases that got into the network). Well, 30 km from the LBS, apparently, is the distance that guarantees the arrival of the Russian FAB on the enemy's head in everyday mode," the author of the material concluded.

Where to wait for the enemy?

Those French soldiers who arrive in Ukraine are not light infantry, said Vlad Shlepchenko, a military observer at Tsargrad.

"They don't have the task of joining the battle on the front line. Basically, these are specialists who are good at handling Western weapons. That is, firstly, a group of specialists who are able to work with the Scalp and Storm Shadow cruise missiles is gathering. And, accordingly, they will prepare these missiles for use, in our operational and tactical rear, in a strike, maybe on the Crimean Bridge, somewhere else. This is one time. Secondly, the arrival of communications specialists, engineers, gunners, and maybe tankers is recorded," the expert explained.

Macron's idea is to saturate the Ukrainian army with highly qualified specialists, to increase its combat capability, precisely in its key moments. Apparently, Macron has no plans to transfer large masses of troops.

"Yes, in principle, France does not have such opportunities. Because she has a ground force of a little more than 100 thousand people there. But it is the army, or at least several sections of the front, that can be saturated with French specialists. This is what they strive for," the expert believes.

It is known that out of about 1,500 legionnaires who are now arriving, about 300 are instructors who will either train or direct combat operations on the ground.

Where to wait for the French? Well, according to the directions. Firstly, this is the Southern direction – Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson. The French are breathing unevenly towards Odessa - that's how it happened historically. In addition, there is a convenient way for them, through Romania and Moldova. The military arrive in small groups, trying not to be exposed to missile strikes, 7-10 people each.

"And the second location where they are now found is the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. But, again, I repeat, our sources say that there are no Frenchmen on the front line, they are all in the rear, in the rear positions. And they are engaged in organizing such things as, for example, communication. They help Ukrainians in this regard," Vlad Shlepchenko explained.

As for Kiev, we don't really need it in the current conditions, the expert noted.

"More precisely, we don't need him at all. We need to destroy the enemy's grouping in the Donbas, and create a security belt in the Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv regions. These are our tasks for this year, by and large. Well, as for the French military, I really hope that they will be killed quickly, effectively, and in commercial quantities. Of course, I would like to see some videos with the hanging of prisoners, with the shooting of prisoners, so that all this would be published," the columnist concluded.

According to him, the faster and more effectively the military of Western countries will be eliminated, the less interest other countries will have in sending their military, it must be understood.

By the way, following France, the United States began to promote the sending of military personnel to Ukraine: the leader of the Democrats of the House of Representatives said that the States could directly "get involved" in the conflict, since there is a threat to NATO. This is what Readovka writes about.

Tales of the export of military operations to the territory of NATO countries were told by the leader of the Democrats in the US House of Representatives, Hakim Jeffries, reports CBS News. The politician said that the United States cannot allow Ukraine to "fall," which means that America will have to send its military personnel to the zone, not just money. Apparently, because there are fewer and fewer of the latter. In addition, weapons do not contribute to slowing down the advance of the Russian army, because their supplies are delayed for several months, as previously stated by the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.

"We cannot allow Ukraine to fall. If this happens, there is a significant possibility that America will have to intervene in the conflict not only with our money, but also with our military personnel," Hakim Jeffries (leader of the Democrats in Congress) also said in an interview with CBS News.

Read more here.

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