Peace and Polls
Peace and Polls
China and the League of Arab States call for immediate and comprehensive "ceasefire", Lai Ching-te wins Taiwan poll but loses legislature to become a "lame duck",
UPDATE: China and the League of Arab States issued a joint statement on the Israel-Palestine conflict on Sunday, urging an immediate and comprehensive cease-fire and stressing the two-state solution as "a basis" for any future settlement concerning the fate of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
On January 13, Lai Ching-te, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and the incumbent Vice President of Taiwan, emerged as a winner of Taiwan’s presidential election, garnering over 40% of support from the voters. Despite the speculation that the race among three candidates — Lai, Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih, and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je — would be a close race, Lai emerged as a winner, but lost control of the legislature to the KMT and become a “lame duck”.
President Lai Ching-te, has consistently claimed that Taiwan is already an independent sovereign nation, and therefore has no need to declare its independence. However, this is not a new position, and has in fact been the stated position of Taiwan’s leaders since 1999 when Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui described the cross-Strait relationship as “state-to-state” or “nation-to-nation.”
China, Arab League urge immediate, comprehensive cease-fire
By GT staff reporters
China and the League of Arab States issued a joint statement on the Israel-Palestine conflict on Sunday, urging an immediate and comprehensive cease-fire and stressing the two-state solution as "a basis" for any future settlement concerning the fate of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
While China is going all out to advocate for a cease-fire of the Gaza conflict, restoration of peace and protection of the safety of civilians, the US and the UK are trying to shift public attention from the conflict to other tensions including those in the Red Sea, in an attempt to portray themselves as defenders of order, Chinese experts pointed out, while noting that the rising Red Sea tensions are rooted in the Israel-Palestine conflict, and only after the conflict is solved can spillover tensions be eased.
On Sunday, after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, met with Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit in Egyptian capital Cairo, the two sides issued the joint statement.
The statement noted that China and the Arab side support the holding of an inclusive dialogue with the participation of all Palestinian factions that is committed to achieving Palestinian reconciliation.
It called for an international peace conference with broad participation as soon as possible to promote the implementation of the two-state solution, and resuming peace talks between Palestine and Israel on this basis.
The two sides also expressed deep concern in the statement over the recent escalation of the situation in the Red Sea and stressed that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Yemen should be respected while ensuring the safety of international commercial routes in the Red Sea, which is a priority for international peace and security.
With the current round of the Israel-Palestine conflict entering its 100th day on January 14 local time, in Gaza, fierce fighting continues. At the same time, the negative spillover effect is accelerating after the US and UK conducted a new strike on Yemen's Red Sea port city of Hodeidah on Sunday evening, according to the Houthi-run al-Masirah TV.
Xinhua News Agency noted that the US and Britain have stated that the strikes came in an attempt to deter the Yemeni Houthi group from launching further attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, a vital waterway for global trade.
The Houthis said that their operations aimed to prevent what it called "Israeli-linked ships" from passing through the Red Sea until Israel ends its attack and siege on the Gaza Strip.
The US and its ally are apparently attempting to shift the focus from the original Israel-Palestine conflict, pointed out Li Weijian, a research fellow with the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
Li told the Global Times on Monday that the US, due to its unconditional support for Israel and its unwillingness to effectively persuade it to cease fire, is facing significant international pressure and criticism, making its current situation quite awkward.
As a result, the US hopes to shift public attention by focusing on the Houthis and demonstrating its sense of "justice" in "protecting the order" of international shipping in the Red Sea, Li said.
However, it is clear to everyone that if the Israel-Palestine issue is not resolved, the airstrikes by the US and the UK will not have a positive effect and may even escalate the conflict, the expert noted.
If Red Sea tensions spread, it will affect trade activities along the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, leading to increased time and costs for shipping and even impacting oil prices, Zhu Yongbiao, executive director of the Research Center for the Belt and Road at Lanzhou University, told the Global Times on Monday.
The overall impact has just begun, and whether Red Sea tensions will have a greater impact on the future global economy due to confrontation between the Houthis and the US is being further observed, Li said.
But he believes that the Biden administration will focus more on the US elections in 2024 and avoid opening a third front.
Since the outbreak of the latest Palestinian-Israeli conflict, China has all long stood on the side of equity and justice and done our best to realize a ceasefire, restore peace and protect civilians, Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a press conference on Monday. She cited remarks by Wang Yi in Egypt as stressing that cease-fire is the prevailing priority, and humanitarian aid is the imperative moral responsibility.
The spokesperson continued by saying that the future arrangement of Gaza must fully respect Palestinians' aspiration, and the two-state solution is the sure path to a just settlement of the Palestinian issue. China will continue to take an impartial stand, play its role as a major responsible country, and relentlessly work with the international community for a comprehensive, just and sustainable settlement of the Palestinian issue at an early date, she said.
However, some Western media outlets such as Bloomberg are trying to smear China's role in the conflict.
Starting with the claim that "As the US and UK launch airstrikes to stop Iran-backed Houthi rebels from attacking ships in the Red Sea, China again finds itself happily sitting on the sidelines," Bloomberg attempts to defame China's efforts during the conflict and portray China as a "country just paying lip service."
However, the old tricks used to smear China are clearly untenable, as Chinese experts pointed out that the United Nations has not authorized the US or its ally to air strike against the Houthis.
The US, which is pouring fuel on the fire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, also wants to play the role of fireman, and at the same time accuses other countries of watching from the sidelines. But in fact, the US is responsible for the conflict, Zhu said.
"We have a common responsibility to ensure the security of the Red Sea, and we will not be deceived by the US to fuel such tensions," Li said.
As many problems are rooted in the Israel-Palestine conflict, we should stress a return to the solution of the fundamental problem on the road, he stated, noting that as long as the conflict has a comprehensive cease-fire, Red Sea tensions will naturally calm down.
Read more here.
China on the Post-Election Taiwan
By Yun Sun
Director, Stimson Center China Program
It is well-known that Lai has not been China’s favored candidate. Based on his past record, he is and will be “presumed guilty” of pursuing Taiwan independence by China. The question for Beijing is how far and how fast he will go. From his election campaign, the Chinese experts have drawn the conclusion that Lai most likely will not pursue key actions to change Taiwan’s status, such as a constitutional revision or a referendum. In fact, given that the constitutional revision will require a super majority and DPP only occupies 45% of the seats in the Legislative Yuan, such a revision will not be feasible for DPP anyway.
However, the problem for China is no less serious. As Lai put it in his interview with Bloomberg during the election season, the status of Taiwan for Lai is that “Taiwan is already a sovereign, independent country called the Republic of China.” For China, this means Lai has bypassed all the steps to pursue independence because he sees Taiwan as already independent. China did not react to his statement during the election season on the ground that 1) he was speaking as a candidate and 2) any major reaction by China would backfire. Now that he is elected, the reiteration of that position will most likely trigger major reactions from China.
As Lai is “presumed guilty” by China, Beijing very possibly will remove more if not all early harvest programs under Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that gives preferential tariffs to Taiwanese products. China had ended such preferential treatment for 12 petrochemical products from Taiwan in December and the Ministry of Commerce announced three days before the election that similar actions on machines, textiles, car parts, farms and fish are planned. China has no option but to continue its import of Taiwan’s semi-conductor chips, but the ECFA suspension will focus more on agricultural and other industrial sectors of Taiwan with implications for different constituencies.
China’s default position in 2024 is to seek stability so as to prioritize its domestic problems, especially the sluggish economic growth. As such, military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait will not be China’s preference. However, it is foreseeable that China will maintain its military pressure to deter what it fears to be Lai’s potential attempts to inch forward and change Taiwan’s status.
The longer-term and more strategic question for China is that now DPP is going to have an unprecedented third term, can Beijing still refuse to engage DPP for another four years? China’s rejection in the past eight years has not advanced China’s agenda on Taiwan. If the whole premise of such engagement remains to be DPP’s embrace of 92 Consensus, Beijing will have difficulties to engage Lai. 92 Consensus, with its perceived equation to One Country Two Systems, has no market in Taiwan. Any engagement therefore has to be based on a new political narrative that so far has not seen creative solutions.
Read more here.
Assessing China’s Reaction to Taiwan’s Election
By James Siebens and Pam Kennedy
- Stimson Center Fellow, Reimaging US Grand Strategy Program
- Stimson Center Deputy Director, China Program
In the past 30 years, China has repeatedly used military shows of force to convey warnings to Taiwan’s political leadership about the danger of any move toward a formal declaration of Taiwan independence.
The winner of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election, incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te, has consistently claimed that Taiwan is already an independent sovereign nation, and therefore has no need to declare its independence. However, this is not a new position, and has in fact been the stated position of Taiwan’s leaders since 1999 when Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui described the cross-Strait relationship as “state-to-state” or “nation-to-nation.” This formulation represents a key point of disagreement between Taipei and Beijing, which sees the “one China” principle as a precondition for cross-Strait dialogue.
In the coming days and weeks, in the period between Mr. Lai’s election victory and his inauguration on May 20, we may confidently anticipate that Beijing will once again leverage military demonstrations to express its displeasure and deter Taiwan from formally declaring independence. In the absence of evidence of a much greater mobilization by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the United States should guard against the temptation to over-interpret the forthcoming demonstration of force as a near-term “threat” to invade. We should instead expect a purely performative display aimed not at threatening Taiwan with invasion under the status quo, but rather warning against further unilateral departures from it.
We see this pattern of similar PLA displays throughout Taiwan’s democratic history. In the runup to the first presidential election in 1996, Beijing spent almost a year gradually escalating military exercises and a series of diplomatic maneuvers in a failed effort to pressure voters not to elect Lee Teng-hui. Mr. Lee’s “state-to-state” comment in 1999 was likewise followed by months of military demonstrations and threats, including in the context of the presidential elections in 2000. These displays failed to convince Taiwan’s leaders to reject the “state-to-state” concept, though newly elected President Chen Shui-bian pledged “four noes,” including not declaring or holding a referendum on independence, and not adding “state-to-state” to Taiwan’s constitution so long as China doesn’t intend to attack Taiwan—this position largely defines the status quo, and the safe parameters of the cross-Strait relationship. Most recently, in 2022, Beijing warned repeatedly against a visit to Taiwan by then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and conducted the most significant exercises since 1996 immediately following her trip.
As with past crises, the best response would be for the United States to send a subtle message of deterrence by temporarily increasing its naval presence near Japan and/or the Philippines, and to state clearly that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence or any unilateral changes to the status quo. This combination of deterrence and reassurance is a winning formula for managing the heightened tensions that often accompany elections in Taiwan. The key is to respond to such demonstrative threats with both confidence and restraint: credibly reinforcing the U.S. position that any use of force across the Strait would be unacceptable, while reiterating that the United States’ “one China” policy includes calling on both sides to refrain from unilateral changes to the status quo, and assiduously avoiding interference in Taiwan’s politics.
Read more here.
Lai’s Victory Means Continuity in Japan-Taiwan Relations
By Yuki Tatsumi
Director, Stimson Center Japan Program
On January 13, Lai Ching-te, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and the incumbent Vice President of Taiwan, emerged as a winner of Taiwan’s presidential election, garnering over 40% of support from the voters. Despite the speculation that the race among three candidates — Lai, Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih, and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je — would be a close race, Lai emerged as a winner with a much greater margin than had been anticipated.
Within hours of Lai’s victory, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa issued a statement congratulating Lai’s victory. In her statement, Kamikawa reiterated Japan’s view of Taiwan as “an extremely crucial partner and an important friend, with which it shares fundamental values” and reaffirmed Tokyo’s willingness to continue to deepen Tokyo’s relationship with Taipei, albeit a “working relationship on the non-governmental basis”.
As Kamikawa’s statement suggests, Japan has maintained a close but unofficial relationship with Taiwan under its own “One China Policy” since 1972, with Japan’s relationship based on economic, cultural and personal exchanges. However, as Chinese pressure against Taiwan grows, particularly following then-U.S. Speaker of the House of Representative Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Japan has increasingly begun to discuss peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as Japan’s own national security concern. Tokyo has also begun to articulate the importance it attaches to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait more in the global context. For instance, Japan’s 2022 National Security Strategy, while still emphasizing that “Japan’s basic position regarding remains unchanged”, defines Taiwan as “an extremely important partner and a precious friend of Japan, with whom Japan shares fundamental values, including democracy”, arguing that peace and stability across Taiwan Strait is an “indispensable element for the security and prosperity of the international community.” All the more so, indeed, as Beijing’s pressure against Taipei escalates.
Indeed, even as Japan officially maintains its activities at the non-governmental level and focuses more on practical areas of cooperation, Tokyo has sought to deepen its relationship with Taipei on a number of fronts. At the political level, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) launched a consultative forum with DPP, which is expected to hold a regular consultation. Japan is also seeking to deepen its cooperation with Taiwan in its investment in semiconductors, as demonstrated by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) growing investment in Japan for its manufacturing factories over the last year.
For Japan, Lai’s victory means that Tokyo’s relations with Taipei will remain on the current trajectory. Moving forward, Japan should continue to seek opportunities not only to build on existing cooperation, but also expand the areas in which both sides can pursue practical cooperation. In particular, given the likelihood of China increasing pressure against Taiwan in military and non-military fronts, it will be critical for Tokyo to begin to engage in dialogue not only with Taipei but also with the U.S. and other like-minded partners on how to counter various attempts of coercion by Beijing.
Read more here.
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