Mahoney on Biden and Netanyahu
Mahoney on Biden and Netanyahu
"lt was clear when the party elites were moving against him." Netanyahu's ongoing visit the US and how it plays to American and Israeli politics and the crisis in #gaza.
Biden Withdrawal Address
Featured Contributor Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney discusses Biden's withdrawal address on CGTN
Q1 You've seen President Biden's address to the nation, what's your assessment?
Biden is putting lipstick on a pig. This isn't the ending he wanted but he didn't have a choice. lt was clear when #obama and #pelosi started moving against him late last week that he'd had lost the centre and the party elites were moving against him. Party leaders must have known Harris is their only alternative presently. That might change but she's a convenient replacement for #biden and it would have been difficult togo around her for someone else.
But let's be clear: after Biden's poor debate performance and COVlD diagnosis, among other missteps, in tandem with Trump's post-assassination attempt surge, the concern was not simply that Democrats might lose the White House, but might also lose both chambers of Congress, especially if energised Republicans went to the polls in droves while disillusioned Democrats and even swing voters stayed home.
Nevertheless, Biden's message on passing the torch is the right one.This is precisely what a lot of people want. What's ironic is that he's spent his Administration suppressing Harris to such an extent that it was almost impossible to imagine her having this sort of opportunity. However, this might now work to her benefit because she's almost baggage.
Q2 How do you view the prospects of Vice President Kamala Harris in becoming the Democratic presidential candidate?
She's probably consolidate given the support we've seen already from major political leaders, donors, lobbies and unions, but an open Convention is still a possibility...
The fundamental question is not whether Harris can win butwhether #trump can lose. And the answer is, he lost the popular vote counts of the previous two elections, his hardcore support is only 40-44%, give or take, and we should expect many more surprises between now and November. In today's world things can change quickly, with unexpected events and viral media campaigns changing the landscape dramatically, week-to-week. Such is the reality of hyperreality.
If Harris has a good Convention, if see good debates, then she stands agood chance. She's aggressive, and proved herself a good campaigner and debater when she ran against Biden for the nomination four years ago. Many Americans do want change, and she might be the face of it. However, we'll have to see how she polls in the five or six swing states that will ultimately decide the election. Can she appeal to enough white middle and working class voters in those states? Will she carry minority and women voters? Hillary Clinton didn't do well enough among women voters, so gender here is no guarantee. it's going to be tough, but she can fight and perhaps unite better than Biden can now.
Netanyahu in the USA
Featured Contributor Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney joined #cgtn Global Watch to discuss Netanyahu's ongoing visit the US and how it plays to American and Israeli politics and the crisis in #gaza.
Q1 What do you make of Prime Minister Netanyahu's address toCongress?
First, it's adroit but crass opportunism. Second, about half the Democrats chose to skip the address, demonstrating how the conflict has split the Democratic Party. Third, Netanyahu's promise of "total victory" is terrifying, and his vision of a post-conflict Gaza is still a blackbox of uncertainty, the latter unnerving many of Israel's political elites as well. Fourth, he rightly associates his policies with American support, which should be a black mark of shame on the White House and Congress. Fifth, equating the Hamas attack last year with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941, is a historical, self-serving nonsense, and likewise his comparison with 9/11. Sixth, it's disappointing to see people like Elon Musk attending the session as Netanyahu's guest: Musk has been tweeting or X-ing about his concerns for transgender youth, opposing them being allowed to transition, but avoids the thousands of dead children in Gaza. lt’s hard to understand how his political calculus, or that of anyone who supports the policies advanced by #netanyahu.
Q2 Netanyahu is might also meet with President Biden and VicePresident Harris, and will visit the Republican presidential nomineeTrump at his home in Mar-a-Lago. What is Netanyahu trying to achieve
He's trying to force each of them to signal support for Israel or pay a possible political price with pro-Israeli American voters, despite the atrocities in Gaza. This will play to Trump's advantage, given the more substantial support for #Israel in Trump's political base. In short, Netanyahu is exploiting the campaign environment in a powerful way forcing them to recognise or ignore him. This will play well in Israel, where his hold on power is tenuous, and simultaneously add a wedge issue to the mix that will favour his preferred candidate, Donald Trump.
Q3 How do you view the difference between a Harris-victory and aTrump-victory for Netanyahu?
We don't know how long Netanyahu will hold power. Some believe he'll be shown the door once that conflict in Gaza ends. A Trump victory is generally understood to favour Israel more. Recall that #tump as president pushed forward the Abraham accords, moved the US embassy to #jerusalem, gave Israel a free hand on illegal settlements and took strong measures against Iran. Meanwhile, like #obama before him, Biden has taken a more lukewarm and at times critical position, and we might expect Harris to do the same, or at least avoid the rabidly pro-Israeli policies of Trump, to avoid the stigma of associating with apartheid and genocide allegations, and likewise to avoid alienating Muslim and Palestinian voters in the US, especially in swing states like Michigan, as well as progressives and university students opposed to Israel's policies.
Prof. Josef Gregory Mahoney
Dr. Josef Gregory Mahoney is Professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University (ECNU/华东师范大学). He is one of China’s most-recognised international key opinion leaders, he has more 200 publications and appears frequently on global broadcasts (650+), including CGTN, CCTV, BBC, RT International and TRT World, and is a regular contributor to China Radio International’s The Beijing Hour and RTHK’s Backchat (Hong Kong). He is a regular contributor to South China Morning Post and Beijing Review, among others.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/josef-gregory-mahoney-95481615/